Home / Investing / Financialization has cemented the decline in fertility, birth and eventual depopulation rates – Investment Watch

Financialization has cemented the decline in fertility, birth and eventual depopulation rates – Investment Watch

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by C Hamilton

Summary


Nations with 56% of world GDP have declining annual births and populations of childbearing age, nations with 35% of GDP have declining births but still fertile populations grow / grow, nations with less than 9% of world GDP have rising births and fertile populations.

Below are the annual births from 1950 to 2040, women of childbearing age and female populations after maternity in the world's largest economies.

Using data from the United Nations on World Population of 2019.

Following the great financial crisis of 2009, ZIRP / NIRP was used, federal deficit spending skyrocketed, asset prices skyrocketed, employment rose to record levels … but strangely fertility rates and births Totals have continued to fall. Actually, collapsing. Record wealth has been accompanied by record low birth rates and a lack of willingness to have children, suggesting that those who reap the profits from the pallooza of asset prices are not of childbearing age. Policies since 2009 have rewarded asset holders for being asset holders and have penalized young people, the poor and those without assets … for having no assets.

Simply put, living costs and assets have increased much faster than income. The rent, the nursery, the insurances, the education, the medical attention, etc., etc., have taken an increasing part of the income, which has caused less marriages, minor and later, and a lack of will general to reproduce. All this has led to the collapse of youth populations (and now young adults) among nations that consume more than 90% of world exports and, ultimately, means a collapse of demand, while excess capacity is will shoot.

Therefore, today I show that of the more than 50 major world economies, 6 have increasing annual births and fertile populations, 9 have decreasing annual births but still have a growing or flat population (the precursor to depopulation), 35 + have decreasing births, a decrease in the population of childbearing age, is in a secular decline and is depopulated from the bottom up (negative birth rates along with a decrease in populations of childbearing age). Essentially, global consumer bases are collapsing from young people, and this situation is only accelerating … and more debt, more QE, more interest rate cuts are just pushing birth rates and total births to low.

Many will applaud the rapid decline and deceleration of the demographic growth of the nations that make all the consumption, but we are rapidly approaching a demographic and economic cascade among consuming nations that will leave little or no export-led growth potential for poor nations. . And that, along with the increasingly available access to birth control, means that the economic growth of more poor nations (birth rates and total births) will likely follow the consuming nations down. The likely outcome is an inverted global pyramid with growing elderly populations (and policies to support them) the cause of the collapse of young populations.

The populations of women aged 20 to 40 and over 40 are not so much projections as simple mathematics, these women already exist and will only move forward during the next twenty years assuming existing immigration patterns. Births from 2020 are projections. Nations are in the order of the percentage change of their breeding populations from 20 to 40 years between 2020 and 2040. GDP and% of total world GDP are also included for relativity.

Falling (decreasing births, the population of childbearing age is also decreasing)
*** For those nations with large variations of significantly faster declines among the population of childbearing age than those projected at births, I add an estimated dotted line with declining births that reflect declining populations.

Taiwan (# 15 GDP, 0.7%)
Taiwan 2020 – 2040

20-40 women -1.15 million, -35%

Est. Annual births -61k, -35% (UN projects -17k, -10%)

40+ women +1.3 million, + 20%

South Korea (# 9 GDP, 1.9%)South Korea 2020 – 2040

20-40 women -2.1 million, -33%

Est. Annual births -100k, -33% (UN projects -20k, -6%)

40+ women + 2.6 million, + 17%

Singapore (# 21 GDP, 0.4%)
Singapore 2020 – 2040

20-40 women -210k, -26%

Est. Annual births -30k, -50% (UN projects -18k, -30%)

40+ women +0.5 million, + 34%

Eastern Europe excluding Russia (# 13 GDP, 1.2%)2020 – 2040 (Belarus, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Moldova, Romania, Slovakia, Ukraine)

20-40 women -4.6 million, -24%

The UN projects annual births -240k, -17%

40+ women, +0, + 0%

China (# 3 GDP, 16%)China 2020 – 2040

20-40 women -44 million, -22%

Est. Annual births -3.2 million, -22% (UN projects -1.1m, -7%)

40+ women +76 million, + 22%

Japan (# 4 GDP, 6%)Japan 2020 – 2040

20-40 women -2.3 million, -18%

Est. Annual births -155k, -18% (UN projects -40k, -5%)

More than 40 women -2.1 million, -5%

Thailand (# 14 GDP, 0.6%)
Thailand 2020 – 2040

20-40 women -1.6 million, -17%

United Nations projects annual births -144k, -21%

40+ women +3.3 million, + 18%

Chile (# 27 GDP, 0.3%)Chile 2020-2040

20-40 women -470k, -16%

United Nations projects annual births -20k, -11%

40+ women +1.3 million, + 31%

Russia (# 8 GDP, 1.9%)
Russia 2020 – 2040

20-40 women -3 million, -15%

United Nations projects annual births -220k, -13%

More than 40 women, +1 million, + 2%

Vietnam (# 29 GDP, 0.3%)
Vietnam 2020 – 2040

20-40 women -2.3 million, -15%

United Nations projects annual births -320k, -20%

40+ women, + 8.8m, + 45%

Brazil (# 6 GDP, 2.1%)Brazil 2020 – 2040

20-40 women -5 million, -14%

United Nations projects annual births -620k, -22%

40+ women, + 19m, + 43%

Iran (# 15 GDP, 0.5%)Iran 2020 – 2040

20-40 women -2 million, -14%

The UN projects annual births -260k, -14%

40+ women, + 10m, + 71%

Colombia (# 24 GDP, 0.4%)Colombia 2020 – 2040

20-40 women -1 million, -11%

United Nations projects annual births -175k, -23%

40+ women +4.6 million, + 46%

Western Europe (EU + 29 countries … # 2 GDP, 22%)Western Europe 2020-2040

20-40 women -5 million, -9%

United Nations projects annual births -225k, -5%

40+ women, +8 million, + 6%

Malaysia (# 20 GDP, 0.4%)Malaysia 2020-2040

20-40 women -350k, -6%

United Nations projects annual births -85k, -16%

40+ women +3.7 million, + 71%

Turkey (# 14 GDP, 0.9%)Turkey 2020 – 2040

20-40 women -400k, -3%

United Nations projects annual births -145, -11%

40+ women +7 million, + 42%

Peru (# 30 GDP, 0.3%)Peru 2020-2040

20-40 women -190k, -3%

UN Projected Births -130k, -21%

40+ women +3.3 million, + 55%

Bangladesh (# 25 GDP, 0.4%)Bangladesh 2020 – 2040

20-40 women -240k, -1%

United Nations projects annual births -600k, -23%

40+ women, +19 million, + 78%

Flattening (Births falling, the population of childbearing age continues to increase)

South Africa (# 22 GDP, 0.4%)

South Africa 2020-2040

20-40 women +0.9 million, + 9%

United Nations projects annual births -10k, -1%

40+ women +5.3 million, + 58%

India (# 5 GDP, 3.4%)India 2020 – 2040

20-40 women +9 million, + 4% (2032 is the peak of motherhood … down, down from there)

United Nations projects annual births -3.4m, -14%

40+ women +116 million, + 54%

Argentina (# 17 GDP, 0.5%)Argentina 2020 – 2040

20-40 women + 430k, + 6%

United Nations projects annual births -30k, -4%

40+ women +3.1 million, + 34%

Indonesia (# 12 GDP, 1.3%)
Indonesia 2020 – 2040

20-40 women +2.7 million, + 6%

United Nations projects annual births -88k, -2%

40+ women +22.6 million, + 47%

Saudi Arabia (# 13 GDP, 0.9%)Saudi Arabia 2020 – 2040

20-40 women + 280k, + 5%

United Nations projects annual births -90k, -15%

40+ women +4 million, + 96%

United Arab Emirates (# 18 GDP, 0.5%)

UAE 2020-2040

20-40 women + 60k, + 4%

United Nations projects births + 6k, 6%

40+ women + 500k, 71%

Mexico (# 11 GDP, 1.5%)Mexico 2020 – 2040

20-40 women +0.7 million, + 3%

The UN projects annual births -265k, -12%

40+ women +12 million, + 52%

USA UU. From A (GDP No. 1, 25%)United States 2020 – 2040

20-40 women + 500k, + 1%

Est. Annual births -290k, -8% (UN projects + 340k, + 9%)

40+ women +16 million, + 20%

Canada (# 7 GDP, 2%)Canada 2020 – 2040

20-40 women + 50k, + 1%

The UN projects annual births + 15k, + 3%

40+ women + 2.6 million, + 26% Australia / NZ 2020 – 2040

Growing (Increase in births and increase in fertile populations)

Nigeria (# 16 GDP, 0.5%)Nigeria 2020 – 2040

20-40 women +21 million, + 76%

The UN projects annual births +2.4 million, + 34%

40+ women +15 million, + 81%

Israel (# 19 GDP, 0.4%)

Israel 2020 – 2040

20-40 women + 400k, + 35%

The UN projects annual births + 30k, + 17%

40+ women + 600k, + 37%

Egypt (# 26 GDP, 0.3%)Egypt 2020-2040

20-40 women +5.1 million, + 33%

The UN projects annual births +0.5 million, + 24%

40+ women +9.6, + 70%

Pakistan (# 28 GDP, 0.3%)Pakistan 2020 – 2040

20-40 women +11.4 million, + 33%

The UN projects annual births + 20k, + 0%

40+ women +22 million, + 86%

Philippines (# 23 GDP, 0.4%)Philippines 2020 – 2040

20-40 women +3 million, + 18%

The UN projects annual births + 145k, + 7%

40+ women +10.7 million, + 66%

Australia (# 10 GDP, 1.6%)

Australia 2020-2040

20-40 women + 350k, + 8%

UN projects births +0, + 0%

40+ women +2.3 million, + 31%


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